Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2023

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets · Nov 19, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 2:43 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Fred VanVleet places in the 96th percentile for shot attempts from downtown while playing away from home, compiling 8.5 per game this year.
Fred VanVleet has been on the court for 35.9 minutes per game while playing away from home this year, placing him in the 98th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.
Fred VanVleet has committed a lowly 1.9 personal fouls per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 2.8 fouls per game last season.
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, opposing starting PGs have tallied 6.6 3-point attempts per game (29th-most in the NBA) vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, marking this as a strong matchup.
The Lakers have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should increase possessions for the Rockets.

Favors Under

The 3rd-most lethargic tempo home team in the league this year has been the Rockets.
The Rockets check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on their home court, the Los Angeles Lakers have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet has converted a lowly 2.1 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 3.7 rate last year.
The matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted just 2.5 free throws per game over the last 10 games (12th-least in the league).