Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2023

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets · Nov 12, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 12:30 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Fred VanVleet lands in the 96th percentile for 3-point shots hit when playing away from home, averaging 3.2 per game this year.
Fred VanVleet has played 33.7 minutes per game while playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
With respect to offense, the Houston Rockets's impressive 117.8 points per game while on the road rates 6th-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Out of all players in the league, Fred VanVleet measures in the 82nd percentile for foul-shot effectiveness while on his home court with a a very good 95.2% rate this year.
Fred VanVleet will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage usually increases player production for all stats.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have totaled 16.7 points per game (12th-fewest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, branding this as a challenging matchup for offensive output.
The Rockets have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league on the road this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-most lethargic tempo in the league this year, which should decrease plays for the Rockets.
The Rockets rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (11th-lowest in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, making it tough to get to the foul line.