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Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet Points
Player Prop - 3/28/2023

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Fred VanVleet has attempted 19.6 shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.2 more than he's attempted in all games this year.

Fred VanVleet has averaged 35.4 minutes per game at home this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.

The Toronto Raptors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.9) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Fred VanVleet has sunk 5.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's put through the net in all games this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Fred VanVleet has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.

The Toronto Raptors rank as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.

The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one for shots from the field; the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 15th-least baskets per game in the NBA this year (5.6).

The Toronto Raptors have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Raptors.

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