Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 2/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 8, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has tallied 35.5 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to more plays for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
On the road, the Spurs have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games at home, 8.8% more than he's put through the net in all games this season at home.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has attempted a mere 8.7 3-point shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 9.8 rate last year.
Fred VanVleet has tallied 2.8 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 88th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA while on their home court this year.
The matchup vs. San Antonio is a difficult one for attempts from downtown; when the Spurs are away from home, the opposing team's starting PGs have tallied the least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.8).
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league on their home court this year.