Fred VanVleet Assists - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Assists

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 1:47 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has posted an impressive 9.0 assists per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 7.2 assists per game last year.
Fred VanVleet has tallied 36.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 100th percentile.
Fred VanVleet has averaged a measly 1.8 personal fouls per game this year, quite a bit less than his 2.8 fouls per game last year.
The Houston Rockets will likely see a rise in plays today from sharing the court with the 6th-quickest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 10 games (the Mavericks).

Favors Under

The 3rd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year has been the Rockets.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Houston Rockets rank 3rdworst in in the NBA as the road team with just 9.3 offensive boards per game this year.
On the road, the Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (14.0) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduce player performance across the board.

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