Fred VanVleet Assists - Player Prop Bet 3/28/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Assists

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat · Mar 28, 2023

Updated Mar 28, 2023 11:33 PM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+106/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has tallied 9.0 assists per game over the last 15 games, 2.0 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 35.4 minutes per game at home this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Toronto Raptors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.9) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Fred VanVleet will have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage tends to improves stat production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Raptors.

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