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Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson Points
Player Prop - 3/21/2025

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Duncan Robinson has made 3.5 3-pointers per game over the last 15 games at home, 0.6 more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year while playing at home.

With respect to shots from downtown, the Miami Heat's fantastic 38.1% rate of made threes at home measures as the 5th-best in the league over the last 25 games.

The matchup vs. Houston is a good one for threes; when the Houston Rockets are away from home, opposing starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-most shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (2.4).

Duncan Robinson has missed 0.1 foul shots per game while at home this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this metric: 21st percentile for misses at home.

Duncan Robinson figures to see a rise in production in all stat categories as a result of holding the home court advantage in this game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The most sluggish pace home offense in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.

The Miami Heat will likely suffer a reduction in possessions today from being pitted against the 8th-least up-tempo pace away team in the league over the last 10 games (the Houston Rockets).

Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league at home with a mere 8.4 offensive boards per game this year.

The matchup vs. Houston may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.0 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Houston Rockets are away from home (2nd-least in the league).

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