Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/1/2024

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Duncan Robinson

NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat · Dec 1, 2024

Updated Dec 2, 2024 2:09 AM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson slots into the 91st percentile for three-point shots converted, registering 2.6 per game this year.
Duncan Robinson has tallied 28.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 4.3 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season on the road.
In terms of offense, the Miami Heat's superb 112.7 points per game away from their home court comes in as the 10th-best in the NBA over the last 9 games.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting SGs have averaged 15.6 shot attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Toronto Raptors, designating this as a good matchup.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA on their home court this year, which should lead to more plays for the Miami Heat.

Favors Under

The 4th-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA this year has been the Heat.
The Heat check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.2 foul shots per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Toronto Raptors, struggling to get to the charity stripe.
Duncan Robinson figures to suffer a reduction in production in all facets of the game on account of being on the road in this matchup.

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