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Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson Points
Player Prop - 6/4/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Duncan Robinson has converted 3.9 shots made from the field per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

Duncan Robinson has converted 44.4% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 10.0% higher than he's made overall this season away from his home court.

The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA while on the road this year in terms of 3-point attempts.

The Nuggets have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Nuggets may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; the other team have attempted a lowly 16.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Nuggets have the home court advantage (least in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Duncan Robinson has been on the court for a mere 16.5 minutes per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 23.4 minutes per game last season.

Duncan Robinson has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's averaged over the course of the season.

The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.

The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat.

The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

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