Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 5/29/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 29, 2023

Updated May 30, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Duncan Robinson has successfully made 5.2 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 2.8 more than he's sunk in all games this season.
Duncan Robinson has converted 2.6 threes per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.1 more than he's converted over the course of the year while on the road.
The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 20 games away from home in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one; when the Celtics are at home, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting SFs over the last 10 games (18.7).
The Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.9) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Duncan Robinson has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's committed overall this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games on the road.
The Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Duncan Robinson will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling tends to worsens stat production across the board.