Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 5/10/2023

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Duncan Robinson

NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat · May 10, 2023

Updated May 10, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-101/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Duncan Robinson has converted 47.4% of his attempts from downtown over the last 10 games, 12.4% higher than he's converted from downtown over the course of the year.
The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games in terms of 3-point attempts.
The Knicks have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.2) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Duncan Robinson has sunk 94.1% of his free throw attempts this year, putting him in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Favors Under

This matchup is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; the other team have averaged the 6th-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (36.3).
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league this year.
The Knicks have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; when the Knicks are playing at home, opposing squads have attempted a colossal 24.2 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (7th-most in the league).

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