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Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson Points
Player Prop - 5/8/2023

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-102/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Duncan Robinson has made 47.6% of his shots from downtown over the last 10 games, 12.2% more than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season.

The Miami Heat check in as the 6th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as it relates to attempts from downtown.

The Knicks have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.4) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson has made 91.7% of his foul shot attempts while playing at home this year, putting him in the 91st percentile out of all players in the league.

The matchup against the Knicks may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; their opposition have attempted a measly 21.6 foul shots per game over the last 20 games when the Knicks are away from home (5th-least in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Duncan Robinson has played just 16.3 minutes per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 23.4 minutes per game last season.

This matchup is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; when the Knicks are on the road, the other team have tallied the 5th-most three attempts per game in the NBA against them this year (36.8).

The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year.

The Knicks have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Heat.

The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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