Dru Smith Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2024

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Dru Smith

NBA · Player Props

Dru Smith

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets · Dec 23, 2024

Updated Dec 24, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Dru Smith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dru Smith has successfully made 58.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 7.7% more than he's made in all games this season.
Dru Smith has averaged 29.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.3 more than he's averaged overall this year.
The Heat have been the 7th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home.
The matchup vs. Brooklyn is a strong one; when the Brooklyn Nets are the visiting squad, they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (23.7).
The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 9th-most up-tempo tempo road team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nets).

Favors Under

Dru Smith has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's averaged overall this year.
The matchup against Ben Simmons is a tough one for shot attempts from downtown; when squaring off against opposing starting PGs this year, they have attempted a measly 5.4 three-pointers per game (3rd percentile).
The 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Heat.
The Heat rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

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