Doug McDermott Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2023

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Doug McDermott

NBA · Player Props

Doug McDermott

F · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat · Nov 12, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 12:30 AM EST

Analysis

Doug McDermott Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 38.7% clip, Doug McDermott's 3-point efficiency has spiked this year to 50.5%.
In terms of scoring, the San Antonio Spurs's exceptional 49.3% field goal rate with the home court advantage comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA when playing on the road this year.
The Miami Heat have allowed the 9th-least offensive boards per game (10.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has attempted 19.4 free throws per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Heat, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Doug McDermott has successfully made a lowly 33.8% of his field goals this year, quite a bit lower than his 47.3 rate last year.
Among all players in the league, Doug McDermott comes in at the 80th percentile for technical fouls, posting a whopping 0.0 fouls per game with the home court advantage this year.
This matchup is a strong one for 3-pointers; when the Miami Heat are the visiting team, their opposition has posted the 8th-highest 3-point rate in the NBA against them this year (37.1%).
The Spurs rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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