Doug McDermott Points - Player Prop Bet 11/5/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Doug McDermott

F · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Toronto Raptors · Nov 5, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 7:12 PM EST

Analysis

Doug McDermott Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-120/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Doug McDermott rates in the 92nd percentile for 3-point performance while on his home court with a a phenomenal 39.8% rate since the start of last season.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA as the road team this year.
The Spurs rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing on the road since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Since the start of last season when they are away from home, the other team has captured 9.4 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Raptors (shortening possessions that could otherwise produce more chances for offense).
Doug McDermott should see an increase in efficiency across the board in light of holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, opposing clubs have shot 36.7% on three-pointers (7th-highest in the league) against the Raptors, creating a favorable matchup.
The Raptors have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA away from their home stadium this year, which should decrease opportunities for the Spurs.
When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the San Antonio Spurs's poor 21.1 foul shot attempts per game measures as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Over the last 5 games, the other team has attempted 25.4 free throws per game (6th-most in the league) against the Toronto Raptors, finding it easy to get to the foul line.