Doug McDermott Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Doug McDermott

F · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 5, 2023 2:03 AM EST

Analysis

Doug McDermott Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-114/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Doug McDermott has attempted 7.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 2.3 higher than he's attempted overall this year on the road.
This matchup is a difficult one for attempts from beyond the arc; when the Suns are on their home court, opposing clubs have totaled the 3rd-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA against them this year (31.5).
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 25 games.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Doug McDermott has converted 92.6% of his free throw attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 13.0% more than he's put through the net in all games this season while on the road.

Favors Under

Doug McDermott has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 1.4 more than he's committed in all games this season on the road.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court.
The Suns have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer plays for the Spurs.
The Suns have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the league to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a good one for drawing fouls; opposing clubs have attempted a colossal 28.4 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (most in the league).