Donovan Mitchell Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/8/2023

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Donovan Mitchell

NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Mar 8, 2023

Updated Mar 9, 2023 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has tallied 33.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 92nd percentile.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Donovan Mitchell has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game on the road this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games on the road.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Cavaliers.
Donovan Mitchell will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually decreases player performance across the board.

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