Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/27/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Dec 27, 2023

Updated Dec 28, 2023 1:46 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has posted 1.5 offensive boards per game this year at home, ranking him among the league's hottest by this standard recently: 82nd percentile.
The Mavericks have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, opposing teams have snagged 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Cleveland Cavaliers (lessening possessions that could otherwise generate extra opportunities for offense).
Derrick Jones Jr. is expected to see an increase in efficiency in all stat categories on account of enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

The Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the most sluggish pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).

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