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Derrick Jones Jr.

Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds
Player Prop - 12/23/2023

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs

Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged 1.4 offensive boards per game this year at home, placing him among the NBA's leaders by this metric over this stretch of games: 80th percentile.

The Mavericks will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Spurs).

Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks grade out 10thbest in in the league with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Away from their home court, the Spurs have given up the 2nd-least offensive boards per game (8.9) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Derrick Jones Jr. should get a boost in effectiveness for all stats in light of owning the home court advantage in this contest.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 9 games has been the Mavericks.

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