Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:58 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has totaled a terrific 3.9 rebounds per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 2.3 rebounds per game last year.
Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged 31.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 8.1 more than he's averaged in all games this year on the road.
The 4th-speediest pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Grizzlies have given up the 4th-least offensive boards per game (8.9) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 0.9 more than he's committed in all games this year at home.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the most lethargic pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Grizzlies).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 9thworst in in the NBA when playing at home with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Derrick Jones Jr. ought to see a decline in performance in all stat categories in light of being on the road in this matchup.

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