Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 1:47 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has compiled a whopping 2.6 defensive rebounds per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 1.4 defensive rebounds per game last season.
Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied an impressive 21.1 minutes per game this year, a significant increase from his 13.2 minutes per game last year.
The 6th-speediest pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Houston Rockets have given up the 10th-least offensive boards per game (10.6) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Derrick Jones Jr. should see an increase in performance across the board considering holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most lethargic tempo home offense in the NBA this year (the Rockets).
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

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