Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 11/14/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 14, 2023

Updated Nov 15, 2023 1:19 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last season's 13.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s playing time has spiked this season to 22.0 minutes per game.
In comparison to last season's 1.3 rate, Derrick Jones Jr.'s personal fouls per game have decreased this season to 0.6.
The 2nd-quickest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are expected to see a rise in possessions in this contest from competing against the 8th-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Pelicans).

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 5thworst in in the NBA without the home court advantage with a mere 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Without the home court advantage, the New Orleans Pelicans have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (16.6) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Derrick Jones Jr. will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court generally decreases stat production across the board.

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