Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 11/3/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 3, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 1:43 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Derrick Jones Jr. measures in the 22nd percentile for personal fouls, compiling a lowly 1.3 fouls per game since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, the other team has secured 9.9 offensive boards per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets (diminishing possessions that could otherwise produce added opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has posted 1.4 defensive rebounds per game while on the road since the start of last season, placing him in the 18th percentile -- among the league's worst in this category.
Derrick Jones Jr. has been on the court for 13.2 minutes per game since the start of last season, riding the bench far more than most players in the league: 23rd percentile.
The {OPP_TEAM} will likely suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 7th-most lethargic pace team in the league this year (the Denver Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 1stworst in in the NBA when playing on the road with a mere 7.7 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
Derrick Jones Jr. is expected to suffer a reduction in output across the board due to being on the road in this contest.

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