Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/30/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks · May 30, 2024

Updated May 31, 2024 2:36 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk 46.7% of his treys over the last 5 games, 16.7% more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season.
Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged 35.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 10.2 more than he's averaged in all games this season.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 5th-best in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
Derrick Jones Jr. has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 33.5% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year away from home.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged 3.1 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games while playing on the road, 1.4 more than he's averaged overall this season on the road.
This year, opposing starting SFs have averaged 40.6% on field goal attempts (3rd-worst in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, designating this as a difficult matchup.
The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to see a decline in possessions in this contest from facing the most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
As a team, the Dallas Mavericks have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line while on the road: 10th-worst in the league this year, totaling a measly 20.6 foul shots per game.

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