Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/28/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 28, 2024

Updated May 29, 2024 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk 2.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's sunk over the course of the season.
Derrick Jones Jr. has been on the court for 34.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 7.6 more than he's been on the court for in all games this year at home.
In terms of scoring, the Mavericks's superb 116.2 points per game comes in as the 9th-strongest in the league this year.
Derrick Jones Jr. has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 32.4% higher than he's converted overall this year.
Derrick Jones Jr. will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally improves stat production across the board.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 1.0 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 40.6% on field goal attempts (3rd-lowest in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, branding this as a challenging matchup.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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