Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/15/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 15, 2024

Updated May 16, 2024 1:31 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 8.8 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied 31.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.3 more than he's tallied overall this year.
The Thunder have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should raise opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Oklahoma may be a good one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a monstrous 4.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Thunder are playing at home (7th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has been called for 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 2.1 more than he's been called for overall this season on the road.
With respect to shooting, the Mavericks's poor 43.6% field goal rate ranks 5th-fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have shot 25.5% on three-pointers (2nd-worst in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, labeling this as a difficult matchup.
The 4th-least up-tempo pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.
Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk a mere 65.3% of his foul shots this year, significantly lower than his 73.3 mark last year.

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