Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/7/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 7, 2024

Updated May 8, 2024 1:37 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk 63.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 14.8% higher than he's sunk overall this year.
Derrick Jones Jr. has played 31.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.8 more than he's played over the course of the season.
The Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to boost opportunities for the Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 3rd-best in in the league with 12.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Oklahoma may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 4.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing at home (7th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 more than he's been called for over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. the Thunder is a challenging one for 3-point shots; the opposing team's starting SFs have put up the 2nd-lowest three percentage in the league this year (25.5%).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
In contrast to last season's 73.3% mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s foul-shot performance has regressed this season to 64.3%.
As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Mavericks's feeble 20.7 free throw attempts per game on the road comes in as the 7th-worst in the NBA this year.