Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/28/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers · Apr 28, 2024

Updated Apr 29, 2024 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 3.1 three-pointers per game this season, a big improvement over his 1.2 rate last season.
In regard to shooting, the Mavericks's fantastic 117.2 points per game measures as the 8th-most in the league this year.
The 6th-quickest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks will likely see a spike in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 10th-quickest pace team in the league over the last 10 games (the Clippers).
Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk 2.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.9 more than he's converted over the course of the season at home.

Favors Under

The matchup against Los Angeles is a tough one for field goals; when the Clippers are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SFs have compiled the 5th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (43.3%).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create more chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks grade out 7thworst in in the NBA with the home court advantage with just 9.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting SFs vs. Paul George has been remarkably low this year (2.5 free throws per game: 15th percentile).

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