Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/26/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers · Apr 26, 2024

Updated Apr 27, 2024 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk 59.1% of his field goals over the last 10 games at home, 7.7% more than he's put through the net in all games this year with the home court advantage.
In comparison to last year's 1.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s shots from behind the three-point arc have risen this year to 3.1 per game.
With respect to 3-point attempts, the 2nd-most aggressive team in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.
Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 3.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.8 more than he's attempted over the course of the season at home.
Derrick Jones Jr. should see an increase in performance for all stats due to holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's tallied overall this year.
The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a hard one for field goals; when the Clippers are away from home, the other team's starting SFs have posted the 5th-lowest FG% in the league this year (43.3%).
The Mavericks have played at the 6th-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
The LA Clippers have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which should lead to decreased plays for the Dallas Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and spark added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 8thworst in in the NBA with just 9.7 offensive boards per game this year.

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