Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/23/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 23, 2024

Updated Apr 24, 2024 2:18 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last year's 4.8 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have spiked this year to 8.5.
Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 3.1 threes per game this year, a significant increase from his 1.2 rate last year.
Relative to last season's 13.7 rate, Derrick Jones Jr.'s playing time has risen this season to 23.4 minutes per game.
The Mavericks have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 5.3 3-point attempts per game (7th-highest in the league) against the LA Clippers, identifying this as a positive matchup.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's accumulated overall this season.
The Mavericks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 0.5 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the league) against the Clippers, struggling to get to the free-throw line.
Derrick Jones Jr. will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city generally decreases player performance across the board.

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