Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/10/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 10, 2024

Updated Apr 10, 2024 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In comparison to last year's 4.8 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have risen this year to 8.7.
In terms of scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's outstanding 120.5 points per game away from home measures as the strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, identifying this as a positive matchup.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Miami Heat may be a strong one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SFs have attempted an enormous 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).
The Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Among all players in the NBA, Derrick Jones Jr. ranks in the 24th percentile for foul-shot proficiency while playing away from home with a poor 66.5% rate this year.
Derrick Jones Jr. will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling generally reduces player production in all stat categories.

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