Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 31, 2024

Updated Mar 31, 2024 11:17 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-124/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 4.8 rate, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have spiked this season to 8.8.
Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 3.2 three-point shots per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 1.2 mark last season.
Compared to last year's 13.7 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s playing time has surged this year to 23.3 minutes per game.
In terms of shooting, the Mavericks's superb 122.0 points per game on the road rates strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

This year when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 26.1% on 3-pointers (2nd-weakest in the league) vs. the Rockets, designating this as a difficult matchup.
The Mavericks rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Derrick Jones Jr. will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to reduce stat production across the board.

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