Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+109/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has registered a terrific 8.9 points per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 4.8 points per game last season.
Relative to last season's 1.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s three-point attempts have increased this season to 3.3 per game.
With respect to shooting, the Mavericks's impressive 121.2 points per game measures as the strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The 3rd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The matchup against Denver is a good one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a monstrous 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Denver Nuggets are on the road (10th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 1.1 three-pointers per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, designating this as a difficult matchup.
The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from being pitted against the most sluggish tempo visiting offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Denver Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 4thworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

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