Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 14, 2024

Updated Mar 15, 2024 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk an impressive 3.3 baskets per game this season, significantly higher than his 1.7 mark last season.
In comparison to last year's 1.2 mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s 3-point attempts have jumped this year to 3.3 per game.
Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged a terrific 23.4 minutes per game this year, significantly more than his 13.7 minutes per game last year.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games without the home court advantage.
The 2nd-quickest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder is a hard one for three-pointers; the other team's starting SFs have put up the 2nd-lowest three percentage in the league this year (25.5%).
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 1.4 foul shots per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Thunder, struggling to get to the foul line.
Derrick Jones Jr. ought to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this game.

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