Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks grade out 11thbest in in the NBA when playing at home with 10.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
This year, their opposition has nabbed 9.6 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-fewest in the NBA) against the Magic (diminishing possessions that could otherwise generate more opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Over the last 5 games, the other team has shot 38.7% on 3-pointers (8th-highest in the league) against the Orlando Magic, making this a positive matchup.
The 10th-most sluggish pace home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.
The Magic have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Mavericks.
This matchup is a good one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing clubs have attempted a whopping 23.7 foul shots per game this year (9th-most in the league).

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