Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/26/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks · Jan 26, 2024

Updated Jan 27, 2024 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-127/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has successfully made 58.3% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games, 11.0% higher than he's made overall this season.
Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 4.0 threes per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 1.2 rate last year.
With respect to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's superb 118.1 points per game comes in as the 8th-most in the NBA this year.
This year when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 60.1% on 3-pointers (30th-highest in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, creating a favorable matchup.
The 2nd-fastest pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has been called for 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.2 higher than he's been called for over the course of the season.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
The Hawks have given up the 5th-most offensive boards per game (11.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (15th-lowest in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks, making it tough to get to the foul line.
Derrick Jones Jr. is expected to see a decline in efficiency across the board considering being on the road in this game.