Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/13/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 13, 2024

Updated Jan 14, 2024 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 5.4 three attempts per game (28th-most in the league) against the Pelicans, identifying this as a good matchup.
The 6th-fastest tempo home team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks grade out 9thbest in in the league at home with 10.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
Away from home, the Pelicans have allowed the least offensive boards per game (9.1) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the New Orleans Pelicans may be a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (21st-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The Mavericks will likely see a decline in plays in this contest from competing against the least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).

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