Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 1:24 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 10.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this year.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 7th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 5th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 3.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Derrick Jones Jr. will hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium tends to raise player performance for all stats.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's tallied in all games this season.
The matchup vs. the Trail Blazers is a tough one for threes; the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 12th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (29.6%).
The Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from facing the 5th-most sluggish pace visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Trail Blazers).
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Away from home, the Portland Trail Blazers have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.1) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

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