Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/1/2024

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks · Jan 1, 2024

Updated Jan 2, 2024 1:57 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Mavericks check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Utah is a favorable one; when the Jazz have the home court advantage, they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (24.0).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA while playing away from home this year.
The matchup against Utah is a positive one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a colossal 5.6 free throws per game this year when the Jazz are playing at home (30th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's tallied overall this year.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the NBA with just 9.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Over the last 10 games, their opposition has snagged 11.9 offensive boards per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Jazz (retaining possessions that can generate bonus chances for offense).
Derrick Jones Jr. will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually reduces stat production in all stat categories.

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