Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 1:09 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-118/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's superb 116.9 points per game while on the road measures as the 6th-highest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games while on the road.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's accumulated over the course of the season.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 40.6% on field goals (12th-worst in the league) vs. the Timberwolves, designating this as a difficult matchup.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to experience a decrease in plays today from squaring off against the 10th-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have nabbed 12.5 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Timberwolves (retaining possessions that can lead to more chances for offense).

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