Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/25/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 25, 2023

Updated Dec 26, 2023 3:43 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Mavericks have played at the 2nd-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Phoenix may be a good one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.3 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Phoenix Suns are on their home court (29th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The matchup against the Phoenix Suns is a difficult one for three-pointers; the opposition's starting PFs have shot for the 13th-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (29.1%).
The Suns have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Mavericks.
This year, opposing clubs have collected 11.6 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) vs. the Suns (maintaining possessions that can generate extra chances for offense).
As a team, the Mavericks have been lousy at drawing fouls away from their home court: 6th-worst in the NBA this year, drawing a mere 21.0 foul shots per game.
Derrick Jones Jr. will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court usually lowers stat production in all stat categories.

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