Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 8, 2023

Updated Dec 9, 2023 2:57 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk an impressive 1.8 treys per game this season, a big improvement over his 0.4 rate last season.
In terms of shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's superb 119.7 points per game comes in as the 5th-highest in the league this year.
The matchup against Portland is a positive one for scoring; when the Portland Trail Blazers are the visiting team, the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 28th-highest FG% in the NBA this year (58.3%).
The 4th-speediest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 5.3 free throws per game (28th-highest in the NBA) against the Portland Trail Blazers, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied a measly 20.2 minutes per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 13.1 minutes per game last year.
Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's averaged overall this season.
The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a decline in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 3rd-least up-tempo pace home offense in the NBA this year (the Portland Trail Blazers).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 8thworst in in the NBA with just 9.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The Portland Trail Blazers have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).