Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/2/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 2, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 2:15 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk 51.4% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games on the road, 17.2% higher than he's made from downtown overall this year on the road.
In comparison to last year's 1.2 mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s shots from behind the three-point arc have surged this year to 3.9 per game.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league playing at home this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games at home, which should lead to more opportunities for the Mavericks.
The matchup vs. Oklahoma may be a good one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a massive 4.3 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing at home (26th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

This year when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 22.7% on 3-pointers (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, designating this as a hard matchup.
The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing on the road.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 10thworst in in the league while playing at home with just 10.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has secured 14.0 offensive boards per game (highest in the NBA) against the Thunder (continuing possessions that can lead to additional chances for offense).