Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/1/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies · Dec 1, 2023

Updated Dec 2, 2023 12:40 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last season's 4.8 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have surged this season to 8.7.
Derrick Jones Jr. has converted a terrific 1.4 treys per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 0.4 rate last year.
In contrast to last year's 13.2 mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s playing time has increased this year to 21.9 minutes per game.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are the visiting team, opposing starting SFs have averaged 12.4 points per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) against the Grizzlies, identifying this as a difficult matchup for offensive efficiency.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Dallas Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Memphis is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted just 2.2 foul shots per game since the start of last season when the Memphis Grizzlies are away from home (13th-least in the league).

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