Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 1:32 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has sunk an impressive 1.4 threes per game this season, quite a bit more than his 0.4 mark last season.
Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied an impressive 21.1 minutes per game this year, a significant increase from his 13.2 minutes per game last year.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league as the away team this year.
The 6th-speediest pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Houston Rockets have given up the 10th-least offensive boards per game (10.6) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has converted a mere 40.9% of his field goal attempts this year, significantly less than his 50.9 rate last year.
This matchup is a strong one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Houston Rockets are on their home court, their opposition has averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the league against them since the start of last season (38.4).
The Mavericks will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most lethargic tempo home offense in the NBA this year (the Rockets).
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a favorable one for getting to the foul line; when the Rockets are playing at home, opposing clubs have attempted a monstrous 29.2 free throws per game this year (most in the NBA).