Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 19, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 3.9 three-point shots per game this year, a big improvement over his 1.2 mark last year.
Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged a whopping 21.8 minutes per game this year, a significant increase from his 13.2 minutes per game last year.
Derrick Jones Jr. has tallied 1.3 personal fouls per game on the road this year, ranking in the 17th percentile -- among the league's lowest-fouling.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league on the road this year.
The matchup against Sacramento is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Kings are at home, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 28th-most threes per game in the league this year (2.5).

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 50.9% rate, Derrick Jones Jr.'s field goal prowess has regressed this year to 41.2%.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 10thworst in in the league while on their home court with only 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.
The matchup vs. Sacramento may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a mere 2.3 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Kings are playing at home (12th-least in the league).

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