Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 4.8 mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have surged this season to 9.7.
Compared to last season's 1.2 rate, Derrick Jones Jr.'s shots from behind the three-point arc have increased this season to 4.1 per game.
Compared to last season's 13.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s playing time has risen this season to 22.0 minutes per game.
The Mavericks have been the highest scoring offense in the league when playing away from home this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the league while playing on the road this year.

Favors Under

This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have totaled 2.8 3-point attempts per game (15th-fewest in the league) against the Milwaukee Bucks, marking this as a hard matchup.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the league playing at home with only 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have grabbed 12.8 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Milwaukee Bucks (saving possessions that can produce extra chances for offense).
The matchup vs. the Milwaukee Bucks is a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.5 foul shots per game since the start of last season (11th-least in the league).
Derrick Jones Jr. will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to reduce stat production for all stats.

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