Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/15/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Washington Wizards vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 15, 2023

Updated Nov 15, 2023 11:37 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 4.8 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s points per game have increased this season to 8.7.
Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 4.0 3-pointers per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 1.2 rate last year.
In contrast to last season's 1.3 mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s personal fouls per game have tailed off this season to 0.7.
The Mavericks check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. Washington is a good one for three-point shots; when the Washington Wizards are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have averaged the 30th-most 3-point shots per game in the NBA since the start of last season (2.1).

Favors Under

The Mavericks have been the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
When playing away from home, the Wizards have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.7) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Derrick Jones Jr. will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city generally decreases player performance for all stats.

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