Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/14/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 14, 2023

Updated Nov 15, 2023 12:50 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In comparison to last season's 1.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s 3-point attempts have surged this season to 4.1 per game.
Relative to last season's 13.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s playing time has spiked this season to 22.0 minutes per game.
In comparison to last season's 1.3 rate, Derrick Jones Jr.'s personal fouls per game have decreased this season to 0.6.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the highest scoring offense in the league when playing at home this year.
The 2nd-quickest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have totaled 13.9 points per game (12th-fewest in the league) against the Pelicans, creating a difficult matchup for offensive efficiency.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 5thworst in in the NBA without the home court advantage with a mere 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Without the home court advantage, the New Orleans Pelicans have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (16.6) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Relative to last year's 75.9% mark, Derrick Jones Jr.'s foul-shot performance has regressed this year to 55.6%.
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.9 free throws per game (6th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, struggling to get to the free-throw line.