Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 12, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 11:49 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In comparison to last year's 1.7 rate, Derrick Jones Jr.'s shots from the field scored have risen this year to 3.4 per game.
Relative to last season's 1.2 clip, Derrick Jones Jr.'s shots from behind the three-point arc have surged this season to 3.9 per game.
Derrick Jones Jr. has accumulated a mere 0.8 personal fouls per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 1.3 fouls per game last year.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Mavericks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace in the NBA when playing at home this year.

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 5.0 field goals per game (13th-lowest in the league) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, designating this as a hard matchup.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the {OPP_TEAM}.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
While playing away from home, the Pelicans have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (18.8) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team has attempted a massive 25.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (9th-most in the NBA).